When Did the Pattern Begin?

We are unable to pin down exactly when the pattern of increased candidate percentages in large precincts originated. In a fascinating trip down election fraud memory lane, writer Victoria Collier describes numerous troubling U.S. elections. It would be instructive to do a statistical analysis on one of the races that she cites as an “up-set” like Chuck Hagel’s 1996 Nebraska Senate victory. ”Three days before the election … a poll conducted by the Omaha WorldHerald showed a dead heat [but] Hagel trounced Nelson by fifteen points,” Collier says. “This divergence from pre-election polling was enough to raise eyebrows across the nation.” For now, we can state that races that we examined from 2004 and earlier did not show the pattern.

In the 2000 Republican presidential primary in Wisconsin, each candidate’s share of the votes is roughly the same in small and large precincts. 

In the 2000 and 2004 presidential primaries in Alachua, Florida, each candidate’s share of the votes is roughly the same in small and large precincts. 

The story of how Phil Evans developed this method is detailed in the section of our paper called What is that Pattern?  Our expectations of the statistical patterns are determined by the Law of Large Numbers, and the methodology of the study is explained in that same section of the paper.